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CDT water outlook

When water is likely to be there on the Continental Divide Trail, source by source and week by week.

Trail-wide: when is water there?

Each cell is a 50-mile stretch of trail (left = Mexico border, right = Canada) in one month of a typical year. Values come from a model that adjusts for which year each observation comes from, so a wet year at one end of the trail doesn't masquerade as a season. Blank = not enough data.

One water source, by time of year

Varies a lot year to year. Some years this source runs dry and others it flows well, so treat the typical-year curve as a rough guide. The shaded range is wider to show that spread.

Typical year (model)Likely range (80%)

Quantity

Chance of dry

Water quality (where noted)

Sentiment

Wet and dry years

Trail-wide, how each year compared with an average year after accounting for season and source. Lines show the 95% range from resampling sources.

Quantity (points above or below an average year)

Chance of dry (an average source in an average season = 11%)

Hollow dot = limited data, so treat with caution. Green is better for hikers, orange is worse.

These are model estimates, not current conditions. Seasonal curves come from a regression with year as a fixed effect; each source's curve is pulled toward its 50-mile stretch and then the trail-wide curve, so sparse sources don't overfit, and the shaded band is an approximate 80% range. Hover a chart to read the model at any date. Quantity: 0 dry, 1 stagnant/pools, 2 trickle, 3 flowing, 4 abundant. Never rely on this as your only water information.