AZT water outlook

When water is likely to be there on the Arizona Trail, source by source and week by week.

Trail-wide: when is water there?

Each cell is a 50-mile stretch of trail (left = Mexico border, right = Utah) in one month of a typical year. The model adjusts for which year each report came from, so one wet year doesn't get mistaken for the season. Blank = not enough data, which is mostly summer when few people are out.

One water source, by time of year

Varies a lot year to year. Some years this source runs dry and others it flows well, so treat the typical-year curve as a rough guide. The shaded range is wider to show that spread.

Typical year (model)Likely range (80%)

June to August has very few reports, so that part of each curve is a rough guess. The band widens to show it.

Quantity

Chance of dry

Water quality (where noted)

Sentiment

Wet and dry years

Trail-wide, how each year compared with an average year after accounting for season and source. Lines show the 95% range from resampling sources.

Chance of dry (an average source in an average season = %)

Hollow dot = limited data, so treat with caution. Green is better for hikers, orange is worse.

These are model estimates for a typical year, not current conditions. Seasonal curves come from a regression with year as a fixed effect. A source with few reports borrows from its 50-mile stretch and then the whole trail, and the shaded band is an approximate 80% range. Hover a chart to read the model at any date. Quantity: 0 dry, 1 stagnant/pools, 2 trickle, 3 flowing, 4 abundant. Don't use this as your only water information.